weather briefing

May 15, 2018 - Decision Support Briefing #1. As of: 6:00 AM May 15, 2018 ... Large Hail : Much of the Lower Hud Valley, NE NJ, and Interior S CT. Isolated ...
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Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon/Early Evening... Decision Support Briefing #1 As of: 6:00 AM May 15, 2018

Current Hazards

What Has Changed? Severe Weather Threat for entire Tri-State Damaging Winds Main Threat This afternoon/Early Evening

Weather Forecast Office

New York, NY

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Presentation Created 5/15/2018 6:51 AM 1

Main Points Hazard

Impacts

Location

Timing

• Downed trees and powerlines, along with isolated structural damage associated with the strongest storms.

Entire Tri-State Region

This afternoon and early this evening

• Isolated flash flooding is possible, especially where multiple storms train over the same area. Rainfall rates of around 1 to 2 inches an hour possible. Rapid flooding of Urban Areas, Low-lying Roads, and Small Streams and Creeks.

Entire Tri-State Region

This afternoon and early this evening

Large Hail

• Large hail can cause damage to vehicles and other property.

Much of the Lower Hud Valley, NE NJ, and Interior SW CT

This afternoon and early this evening

Isolated Tornadoes

Isolated tornadoes possible with damage to structures, trees, and powerlines. Power outages possible.

Much of the Lower Hud Valley, NE NJ, and Interior SW CT

This afternoon and early this evening

Damaging Winds

Flash Flooding

Weather Forecast Office

New York, NY

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Presentation Created 5/15/2018 6:51 AM 2

Summary of Greatest Impacts Damaging Winds: Entire Tri-State Region None

Limited

Elevated

Significant

Extreme

Flash Flooding : Entire Tri-State Region None

Limited

Elevated

Significant

Extreme

Large Hail : Much of the Lower Hud Valley, NE NJ, and Interior S CT None

Limited

Elevated

Significant

Extreme

Isolated Tornadoes: Much of the Lower Hud Valley, NE NJ, and Interior S CT None

Limited

Elevated

Significant

Weather Forecast Office

New York, NY

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Extreme

Presentation Created 5/15/2018 6:51 AM 3

Severe Weather SPC Convective Outlooks 32 Day 1

Hazards:   

Wind Gusts up to 65 mph Hail up to 1” Weak tornadoes possible

Impacts:  

Localized/Scattered/Widespread downed trees and powerlines Localized/Scattered/Widespread structural damage

Timing and Location: 

Heaviest rain from 4 to 9 pm

Uncertainty:  Impact of Marine Influence from NYC on East.  Exact magnitude of Severe Gusts (could be stronger than 65 mph in places)

Weather Forecast Office

New York, NY

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Presentation Created 5/15/2018 6:51 AM 7

Flash Flooding

Hazards:  

Rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch, with locally higher amounts Rainfall rates of around 1to 2“/hr possible

Impacts:  Day 1 2 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook



Rapid Flooding of Urban Areas, Low-lying Roads, and Small Streams and Creeks. Isolated Flash Flooding Most Likely over NE NJ/NYC.

Timing: 

Heaviest rain from 3 to 9 pm

Uncertainty: Most likely to see just minor flooding.

Weather Forecast Office

New York, NY

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