Jun 17, 2016 - cost savings and improved efficiencies from search engine optimisation expenditure given both entities ar
17 June 2016
Analyst John O'Shea 613 9235 1633
Webjet (WEB) Time for a Republic
Authorisation TS Lim 612 8224 2810
Online Republic acquisition enhances investment appeal
Recommendation
Buy (unchanged) Price
$6.97 Target (12 months)
$7.84 (previously $7.01) Expected Return Capital growth
12.5%
Dividend yield
2.3%
Total expected return
14.8%
Company Data & Ratios Enterprise value
$621.8m
Market cap
$676.8m
Issued capital
97.1m
Free float
70%
Avg. daily val. (52wk)
$1,177,351
12 month price range
$2.90-$7.33
GICS sector
Historically our positive investment thesis on WEB has centred around the likely sustainability of growth within the Mainstream flight business in Australia together with a positive view on the earnings momentum inherent in the B2B Division. We believe the $79m acquisition of Online Republic (OR) adds to the investment appeal of the stock for the following reasons: 1) OR has market leadership positions in attractive online segments (Motorhomes, Car Rental and Cruising); 2) The outlook for Cruise business appears particularly strong; 3) Broadens the B2C customer base outside of Australia; 4) Provides an opportunity for cost and revenue synergies; and 5) The acquisition multiple does not appear demanding.
Integration remains the key risk given modest recent record Successful integration of the OR acquisition remains the key risk and the recent track record of the Company in this regard is mixed. The $US25m Zuji acquisition completed in March 2013 has so far delivered result well below expectations. In contrast, the subsequent acquisition of SunHotels for Euro$19m in September 2014 appears to have delivered results in line with expectations to this point. We consider the risk attached to the OR acquisition reduced to some degree by the fact that the two companies have had a commercial relationship for some time (white label in the cruise segment) and the business is reasonably well known to WEB.
Retailing
Investment View – Maintain Buy PT $7.84 (prev $7.01) Price Performance Price (A$) Absolute (%) Rel market (%)
(1m) 5.90 19.89 23.36
(3m) 6.37 10.99 11.18
(12m) 3.17 123.02 129.36
Absolute Price
We have updated our estimates to incorporate the OR acquisition and associated capital raising. The net effect of these changes is that our EPS estimates have been downgraded by 1% in FY16 and upgraded by 9% in FY17 and 8% in FY18. Our 12month price target has increased 12% to $7.84 due to our earnings revisions and the roll forward of the model and is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple methodology that looks at rolling 1-year forward earnings derived from a ROIC model (pre-tax WACC 10.1% vs 10.3% previously). We maintain our Buy recommendation as we believe the OR acquisition further enhances the growth profile of the Company. Earnings Forecast Year end June
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
Sales (A$m)
119.2
135.6
197.7
227.3
EBITDA (A$m)
30.9
35.5
59.3
67.7
NPAT (reported) (A$m)
17.5
21.9
41.4
47.4
NPAT (adjusted) (A$m)
19.8
21.9
41.4
47.4
$4.00
EPS (cps)
24.5
27.0
42.6
48.8
$3.00
EPS growth (%)
26.6
10.4
57.7
14.6
$2.00
PER (x)
28.5
25.8
16.4
14.3
$1.00
EV/EBITDA (x)
20.1
17.5
10.5
9.2
$0.00
Dividend (¢ps)
12.9
14.6
23.3
29.3
$8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00
Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16
WEB
S&P 300 Rebased
Yield (%) Franking (%) ROE (%)
SOURCE: IRESS
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED ACN 25 006 390 7721 AFSL 243480
DISCLAIMER AND DISCLOSURES THIS REPORT MUST BE READ WITH THE DISCLAIMER AND DISCLOSURES ON PAGE 8 THAT FORM PART OF IT.
1.8
2.1
3.3
4.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
28.6
26.6
22.9
23.8
Page 1
Webjet (WEB)
17 June 2016
How does this change our Investment Thesis? Previous view unchanged based on continued strength in Mainstream and B2B delivering against guidance Historically our positive investment stance on WEB has been largely predicated on two key elements: 1.
Continued strength in the Mainstream flight business – We have been of the view that the recent strength in WEB’s Domestic Flights business (Mainstream Division) is likely to prove sustainable. The reasons for this stance were discussed in our report of 30 March 2016 titled “Taking a closer look at Mainstream”. In this note we discussed the fact that WEB’s recent results have highlighted the strong turnaround in the Australia/NZ B2C business (Mainstream Division) at a time when market observers were questioning the sustainability of the model. In this report we take a closer look at what has driven this turnaround and whether we believe it will continue. Our analysis indicates that the improved results for the Mainstream Division reflect a combination of factors many of which point to sustainable growth; and
2.
B2B Division well positioned to deliver against FY17 guidance – The Company stated at the 1H16 results that it expects its B2B Division to deliver EBITDA of $11m in FY17. On face value this appeared to represent a bullish call however we note the strong top line growth delivered in a relatively short timeframe. The Company appears to have established its positon in the Middle East B2B market relatively quickly based on the recruitment of a team from direct competitor GTA Travel. The acquisition of SunHotels in July 2014 has further enhanced capabilities in the European B2B segment and the Company is looking to expand organically in the US market. In summary, results to date suggest the B2B guidance for FY17 appears reasonable.
Figure 1 - Online Republic - Overview
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA
Page 2
Webjet (WEB)
17 June 2016 Online Republic adds another dimension to the B2C offering and enhances the investment appeal The acquisition of OR represents a material development for WEB given it is the largest acquisition in the Company’s history. The key question that it raises is what impact the transaction has on our previous investment thesis outlined above? In our view the acquisition enhances the investment thesis based on the following factors: 1.
OR has market leadership positions in attractive online segments – Motorhome Republic is No 1 online motorhome agent worldwide, Cruise Sale Finder is the leading online cruise agency in Australia/NZ and Airport Car Rental Republic is the No 2 online rental car booker in Australia/NZ. We consider this an attractive segment given the ongoing structural shift to online;
2.
The outlook for Cruise business appears particularly strong – We remain particularly bullish on the outlook for the Cruise component of the OR business. This view is based on the fact that Australia currently has highest Cruise penetration rate as a % of the population of any country in the developed world. Further our analysis suggests this growth has been particularly apparent in the older income demographic given the improved amenities now available on cruise ships. At the same time, we note that this age group has increasing spending capacity and this is being reflected in the cruise segment in particular;
Figure 2 - Australian Ocean Cruise Passenger Numbers
Figure 3 - % of Population taking an Ocean Cruise
1200
5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
1000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SOURCE: CLIA
SOURCE: CLIA
3.
Broadens the B2C customer base outside of Australia – One of the key features of the OR business is that an estimated 70% of Motorhome and Car Rental transactions are booked outside of Australia (note this is where the transaction is booked from). This provides access to a broader B2C customer base outside of Australia. We note that the Cruise segment customer base is based in Australia/NZ (70/30 split). This translates to an estimated 55% of group transactions booked outside of Australia;
Figure 4 - OR - Motorhomes/Car Rentals bookings by customer location
Figure 5 - OR - Cruise bookings by customer location
NZ 30%
Aust/NZ 30%
Australia 70%
Rest of World 70%
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Page 3
Webjet (WEB)
17 June 2016 4.
Provides an opportunity for cost and revenue synergies – We expect cost synergies to be explored in the Car Rental segment given WEB has a reasonable sized business in this area. In addition, we note the Company operates a white label of the OR online Cruise offering. This point to some obvious revenue synergies given the ability to retain a higher margin. We would also expect some cost savings and improved efficiencies from search engine optimisation expenditure given both entities are likely to have material budgets in this area; and
5.
Acquisition multiple does not appear demanding – The acquisition multiple of 7x EV/EBITDA appears attractive given the double digit EPS accretion delivered and the outlook for the business. The Company has guided to a 5 year EBITDA CAGR for the OR business of at least 10% pa consistent with the B2C Divisional guidance.
Key risk is the ability to successfully integrate the acquisition given recent track record is mixed Attention now turns to successful integration of the acquisition and this remains the obvious key risk for investors. This risk has been heightened somewhat given the recent track record of the Company in this regard is mixed. The $US25m Zuji acquisition completed in March 2013 has so far delivered result well below expectations and we consider this unlikely to change materially in the short term. In contrast, the subsequent acquisition of SunHotels for Euro$19m completed in September 2014 appears to have delivered results in line with expectations to this point. We consider the risk attached to the OR acquisition reduced to some degree by the fact that the two companies have had a commercial relationship for some time (white label in the cruise segment) and the business is reasonably well known to WEB.
Page 4
Webjet (WEB)
17 June 2016
Earnings and Valuation changes EPS estimates downgraded by 1% in FY16 and upgraded by 9% in FY17 and 8% in FY18 We have updated our estimates to incorporate the OR acquisition and associated capital raising. We have assumed the OR business delivers results in line with Company guidance in FY17 and that the one month contribution to earnings in FY16 (settlement 1 June) is offset by transaction costs. Our earnings assumptions for the remaining WEB Divisions remain unchanged. The net effect of these changes is that our EPS estimates have been downgraded by 1% in FY16 and upgraded by 9% in FY17 and 8% in FY18. Figure 6 - Earnings Revisions Old
FY16e New
% Change
Old
FY17e New
% Change
Old
FY18e New
% Change
Revenue $m
135.6
135.6
0%
154.2
197.7
28%
179.0
227.3
27%
EBITDA $m
35.5
35.5
0%
46.7
59.3
27%
53.7
67.7
26%
26.2%
26.2%
0
30.3%
30.0%
-28
30.0%
29.8%
-22
NPAT (adj) $m
22.1
21.9
-1%
31.7
41.4
30%
36.5
47.4
30%
EPS (adj) cps
27.3
27.0
-1%
39.2
42.6
9%
45.1
48.8
8%
DPS cps
14.7
14.6
-1%
21.4
23.3
9%
27.0
29.3
8%
EBITDA Margin*
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Valuation and 12-month price target $7.84 (previously $7.01) We value WEB at $7.84 using a target EV/EBITDA multiple derived from a ROIC model that looks at rolling 1-year forward earnings. This delivers a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.9x rolling 1-year forward earnings using a rolling 1-year forward ROIC of 64.2% (pretax) and a pre-tax WACC of 10.1% (previously 10.3%). Our price target has increased 12% due to our earnings revisions, the lower WACC and the roll forward of our model (rising earnings profile). Figure 7 - WEB EV/EBITBA valuation - ROIC model
Key Assumptions ROIC rolling 1 year fwd Growth rate WACC pre-tax D&A rolling 1-year fwd $m EBITDA 1-year rolling fwd $m
64.2% 3.0% 10.1% 6.81 58.6
Results Implied rolling fwd EV/EBITDA Multiple Rolling fwd EBITDA $m Enterprise Value $m Rolling fwd Net Cash $m Value of Equity $m No of shares (diluted) m
11.9 58.6 695.9 65.3 761.2 97.1
Valuation per Share
$7.84
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Page 5
Webjet (WEB)
17 June 2016
Webjet (WEB) – Investment Summary Company Description Webjet operates Australia’s largest independent online travel website. The company specialises in domestic and international online flight bookings and offers online accommodation, car rental and insurance. The business derives the bulk of its revenue from booking charges and fees with a growing percentage of airline sales from the international segment. The business has expanded into the international B2B hotels segment over recent years and acquired the online B2C operator Online Republic.
Investment Strategy We rate WEB as a Buy with a 12-month target price of $7.84. We consider the company now has multiple growth options with the Mainstream business back winning share again and the B2B (Lots of Hotels and SunHotels) providing potential X-Factor. The Online Republic acquisition enhances the investment appeal given the business has leading market positions in attractive online segments.
Valuation We value WEB at $7.84 using a target EV/EBITDA multiple derived from a ROIC model that looks at rolling 1-year forward earnings. This delivers a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.9x rolling 1-year forward earnings using a rolling 1-year forward ROIC of 64.2% (pretax) and a pre-tax WACC of 10.1% (previously 10.3%). Our price target has increased 12% due to our earnings revisions, the lower WACC and the roll forward of our model (rising earnings profile).
Risks We believe there are three factors which represent the key risks to our earnings estimates namely: •
Significant deterioration in economic conditions - We remain cognisant of the fact that a repeat of the conditions experienced during the global financial crisis would not be positive for WEB. The travel sector has the potential to be particularly hard hit in these circumstances;
•
Material expenditure by a competitor over a period of years - There is always a risk one of WEB’s online competitors could commit material dollars over a period of years in an attempt to unsettle WEB’s No1 market position and brand strength: and
•
Online Republic integration - The key risk to our thesis is the successful integration of the Online Republic acquisition.
Page 6
Webjet
Recommendation Price Target (12 months)
as at 17 June 2016
Webjet (WEB)
Buy $6.97 17 June 2016 $7.84
Table 1 - Financial summary June Year end
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
37.1
43.6
57.7
74.8
98.7
119.2
135.6
197.7
2018e 227.3
Profit & Loss (A$m) Sales revenue . . . Change
Price
$6.97
31.0%
17.3%
32.4%
29.5%
32.1%
20.8%
13.7%
45.8%
15.0%
EBITDA
13.1
14.4
18.2
19.2
21.9
30.9
35.5
59.3
67.7
Diluted issued capital (m)
Deprec. & amort.
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.6)
(2.0)
(2.8)
(4.7)
(5.4)
(6.8)
(7.6)
Market cap ($m)
676.8
EBIT
12.8
13.9
17.7
17.2
19.2
26.2
30.1
52.4
60.1
Target Price (A$ps)
$7.84
1.7
2.1
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.3
1.5
Interest Non recurring items
-
(7.0)
1.4
(3.0)
14.5
15.7
19.3
11.4
21.1
23.2
30.6
53.7
61.6
Tax expense
(4.0)
(4.4)
(5.7)
(5.0)
(2.0)
(5.7)
(8.7)
(12.4)
(14.2)
Core EPS (¢ps)
27.5%
28.0%
29.5%
43.3%
9.3%
24.5%
28.5%
23.0%
23.0%
. . . % change
0.1
-
-
-
-
Minorities/Equity Acc
0.1
(0.2)
0.1
0.1
-
-
June Year end
(0.4)
Pre-tax profit . . . tax rate
-
Recommendation
-
Buy 97.1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
13.6
14.5
18.4
16.5
19.3
24.5
27.0
42.6
2018e 48.8
41.0%
7.0%
26.6%
-10.4%
17.4%
26.6%
10.4%
57.7%
14.6%
51.3
48.0
37.9
42.3
36.0
28.5
25.8
16.4
14.3
Valuation Ratios
PE (x)
Net Profit Reported
10.6
11.1
13.8
6.6
19.2
17.5
21.9
41.4
47.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
47.5
43.2
34.0
32.3
28.3
20.1
17.5
10.5
9.2
NRI's post tax Net Profit pre-NRI's
10.6
0.3 11.4
13.8
6.1 12.7
(1.0) 18.3
2.3 19.8
21.9
41.4
47.4
EV/EBIT (x)
48.6
44.5
35.1
36.1
32.4
23.7
20.6
11.8
10.3
Norm Adj Net Profit Normalised
-
-
10.6
-
11.4
-
13.8
(2.7)
12.7
15.6
-
-
19.8
-
21.9
-
41.4
NTA ($ps)
47.4
Cashflow (A$m)
0.44
0.42
0.31
0.29
0.33
0.13
0.35
0.48
0.67
P/NTA (x)
15.8
16.6
22.8
24.4
21.0
54.3
19.7
14.5
10.4
Book Value ($ps)
0.42
0.41
0.34
0.63
0.71
0.85
1.86
2.05
2.25
16.79
16.83
20.54
11.14
9.77
8.21
3.75
3.39
3.10
Price/ Book
Reconciliation 10.6
11.1
13.8
41.4
47.4
10.2
10.9
12.8
12.8
13.3
12.9
14.6
23.3
29.3
Deprec. & amort.
0.3
0.4
0.6
2.0
2.8
4.7
5.4
6.8
7.6
. . . % pay-out
75.0%
74.9%
69.8%
77.8%
68.9%
52.6%
54.0%
54.6%
60.0%
Change in working capital
Net Profit
3.1
3.2
2.8
15.5
(18.0)
13.0
12.5
(10.1)
4.4
Franking (%)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
Yield (%)
1.5%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
1.8%
2.1%
3.3%
4.2%
Other
6.6
19.2
17.5
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.5
(0.6)
0.2
Net operating cashflow Investing Cashflow
14.0
14.8
18.0
24.6
3.5
35.4
Sale/purchase of PPE
(0.6)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(1.4)
(2.4)
Payment for businesses
-
-
(2.9)
(4.7)
-
Other
(1.2)
(1.6)
-
-
-
Net investing cash flow Financing Cashflow
(1.8)
(1.9)
(3.2)
(6.0)
(2.4)
21.9
-
-
DPS (¢ps)
39.8
38.1
59.5
Performance Ratios EBITDA/sales (%)
35.2%
33.0%
31.6%
25.7%
22.2%
25.9%
26.2%
30.0%
29.8%
(1.0)
(8.0)
(7.0)
(6.0)
EBITA/sales (%)
34.4%
32.0%
30.6%
23.0%
19.4%
22.0%
22.2%
26.5%
26.5%
(20.4)
(61.9)
-
-
OCF realisation (%)
129%
128%
126%
287%
16%
160%
146%
79%
(2.2)
(2.2)
(2.2)
FCF realisation (%)
130%
130%
128%
345%
0%
174%
156%
80%
117%
(72.1)
(9.2)
(8.2)
ROE (%)
31.2%
28.3%
34.2%
38.6%
25.7%
28.6%
26.6%
22.9%
23.8%
579.2% 3324.9%
n/a
155.4%
64.2%
60.6%
35.2%
41.1%
45.5%
ROIC (%)
Issue of shares
2.0
1.5
0.9
Buy backs
-
(4.3)
(13.2)
Dividends paid
28.8 -
-
2.6
-
-
(6.5)
(8.1)
(8.8)
(9.7)
-
-
-
-
-
Others
-
-
-
-
-
Net financing cash flow
(4.5)
Effects of exchange rate
-
-
-
(0.3)
(0.2)
(0.1)
Net change in cash held
7.8
1.9
(6.3)
37.3
(9.7)
24.3
(21.0)
19.1
(10.8) 25.1 -
(10.5)
71.0 -
Debt
(11.0)
(10.5)
17.0
(11.8)
-
-
Asset Turn (years)
-
-
Capex/Depn (x)
(22.6)
(28.5)
Interest cover (x)
-
-
-
Net debt/EBITDA
-
-
-
Net debt/equity (%)
59.1
(22.6)
-
-
26.8
-1.30 -40.4%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
37.1
43.6
57.7
64.6
64.0
72.8
82.2
95.1
106.2
Lots of Hotels (B2B)
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
3.5
8.4
12.8
15.8
20.0
Zuji (B2C)
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.2
16.6
24.0
27.4
29.3
31.6
13.8
13.2
14.1
Mainstream (B2C)
4.6
17.0
20.3
34.8
14.6
21.7
27.3
Online Republic
Inventories
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total Revenue EBITDA
0.0 137.9
0.0 166.2
Mainstream (B2C)
Plant and equipment
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.6
3.0
8.1
12.2
13.9
13.8
Non-current receivables
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Intangible assets
6.5
7.7
10.4
39.0
42.8
72.2
151.9
152.6
153.3
Other / financial assets
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Adj
4.4
Online Republic
Deferred tax assets Total non-current assets Total assets
2.5 10.4 51.5
2.7 11.6 54.8
3.0 14.6 53.8
4.6 45.4 134.2
4.8 51.1 129.2
4.4 85.1 202.8
4.4 168.9 293.4
4.4 171.3 309.1
171.9 338.1
Payables
7.7
11.0
16.5
63.0
43.3
73.2
68.9
65.4
75.2
Current tax liabilities
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.9
1.5
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
22.3
27.1
33.3
35.5
0.0
2.3
2.5
5.6
7.0
1.6
2.6
2.8
3.5
4.7
3.3
5.1
7.7
SunHotels (B2B) 7.0
-1.4 12.6
14.0
Total EBITDA Half yearly
13.1 1H13
14.4 2H13
18.2 1H14
19.2 2H14
21.8 1H15
30.9 2H15
35.5 1H16
59.3 2H16e
67.7
Sales revenue
31.8
43.0
50.0
48.7
58.2
61.1
73.8
59.1
12.7%
-3.3%
. . . Change vs pcp
2.2
4.1
0.8
1.2
1.4
EBITDA
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Deprec. & amort. EBIT
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
21.1
21.1
21.1
21.1
Other Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities Net assets
1.6 1.6 11.2 40.3
2.1 2.1 14.6 40.2
2.6 2.6 20.8 33.0
3.5 3.5 73.5 60.7
10.8 10.8 59.9 69.3
11.6 32.8 120.4 82.5
9.7 32.8 112.8 180.6
9.7 32.8 109.7 199.4
9.7 32.8 119.7 218.4
Contributed equity Reserves & outside equity Retained earnings Total equity
25.7 1.5 13.2 40.3
23.2 0.8 16.2 40.2
11.0 0.1 21.8 33.0
40.2 1.9 18.6 60.7
40.2 1.8 27.3 69.3
42.8 5.7 34.0 82.5
130.9 5.7 44.1 180.6
130.9 5.7 62.9 199.4
130.9 5.7 81.8 218.4
Non recurring items (NRI's) Pre-tax profit Tax expense . . . tax rate Minorities Net Profit Reported NRI's post tax Net Profit pre-NRI's
(38.9)
(40.8)
(33.7)
(37.8)
(32.6)
(32.8)
(59.1)
(65.4)
(88.3)
Net debt/(cash) ($m)
21.3 1.9
1.7
Debt
21.6 -2.3
4.1
86.9
227.3
-7.0
1.0
77.0
197.7
0.0
0.6
80.0
135.6
0.0
0.0
87.6
119.1
0.0
0.4
49.1
84.1
0.0
0.1
70.0
18.2
21.1 48.3
74.8
0.0
0.6
18.2
14.4
57.7
0.0
0.0
12.6
13.1
43.6
Lots of Hotels (B2B)
Other liabilities
9.5
37.1
43.5
Zuji (B2C)
Provisions Total current liabilities
(40.5)
-1.10 -32.8%
2.3
0.0
(40.5)
-1.67
2.1
124.5
(61.7) -32.7%
Receivables
0.0
(14.1)
-1.06
SunHotels (B2B)
117.7
(10.9)
-39.8%
138.9
0.0
(2,181.3)
(6.5)
-1.48
116.1
78.1
(36.6)
(7.3)
-47.0%
109.8
0.0
0.98
-1.97
83.0
88.8
8.89
1.31
-62.2%
57.8
0.0
8.66
2.08
-1.85
71.8
39.2
6.63
0.30
-102.4%
34.5
0.0
6.56
2.78
-2.84
40.8
43.2
7.87
2.02
-101.5%
38.9
0.0
9.61
0.58
-2.97
Cash assets
41.1
32.45
0.67
Revenue
22.8
Balance Sheet (A$m)
Total current assets
32.77
1.83
(28.5) -
6.3
41.67
-96.4%
Divisional
Other
108%
(6.7) (28.0)
Interest
45.9%
57.4%
13.3%
16.3%
25.4%
31.5%
9.0
10.3
10.9
11.0
15.4
15.5
18.2
(0.6)
(1.4)
(1.4)
(1.4)
(2.2)
(2.5)
(2.9)
(2.5)
8.4
8.9
9.5
9.7
13.2
13.0
15.3
14.8
0.6
0.6
0.5
(0.5) 8.5 (2.8) 33.0% 0.1 5.8 0.4 6.2
(6.5) 3.0 (2.2) 72.7% 0.0 0.8 5.8 6.6
1.4 11.4 (2.3) 20.0% 9.1 (1.0) 8.1
AIFRS adj post tax
-
-
-
Net Profit Normalised
6.2
6.6
8.1
0.0 9.7 0.3 -3.3% 10.0 10.0 10.0
(0.1) (1.0) 12.1 (3.0) 24.6% 9.1 0.8 9.9 9.9
0.1 13.1 (2.7) 20.8% 10.4 10.4 10.4
0.2 15.5 (4.8) 30.9% 10.7 10.7 10.7
17.3
0.2 15.1 (3.9) 26.0% 11.2 11.2 11.2
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Page 7
Webjet (WEB)
Recommendation structure
17 June 2016 Research Team Staff Member
Title/Sector
Phone
@bellpotter.com.au
TS Lim
Head of Research
612 8224 2810
tslim
Sam Haddad
Industrials
612 8224 2819
shaddad
John O’Shea
Industrials
613 9235 1633
joshea
Hold: Expect total return between -5%
Chris Savage
Industrials
612 8224 2835
csavage
and 15% on a 12 month view
Jonathan Snape
Industrials
613 9235 1601
jsnape
Sam Byrnes
Industrials
612 8224 2886
sbyrnes
Sell: Expect 15% total return on a 12 month view. For stocks regarded as ‘Speculative’ a return of >30% is expected.
Speculative Investments are either start-up enterprises with nil or only prospective operations or recently commenced operations with only forecast cash flows, or
Industrials
Financials
Resources
companies that have commenced
Peter Arden
Resources
613 9235 1833
parden
operations or have been in operation for
David Coates
Resources
612 8224 2887
dcoates
some time but have only forecast cash
Associates
flows and/or a stressed balance sheet.
Hamish Murray
Associate Analyst
613 9256 8761
hmurray
Tim Piper
Associate Analyst
612 8224 2825
tpiper
Such investments may carry an exceptionally high level of capital risk and volatility of returns.
Bell Potter Securities Limited ACN 25 006 390 7721 Level 38, Aurora Place 88 Phillip Street, Sydney 2000 Telephone +61 2 9255 7200 www.bellpotter.com.au
The following may affect your legal rights. Important Disclaimer: This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. In the USA and the UK this research is only for institutional investors. It is not for release, publication or distribution in whole or in part to any persons in the two specified countries. In Hong Kong this research is being distributed by Bell Potter Securities (HK) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission, Hong Kong. This is general investment advice only and does not constitute personal advice to any person. Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client’s financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives (‘relevant personal circumstances’), a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the representative of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arraignment with Bell Potter Securities Limited) should be made aware of your relevant personal circumstances and consulted before any investment decision is made on the basis of this document. While this document is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell Potter Securities Limited has not verified independently the information contained in the document and Bell Potter Securities Limited and its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility for updating any advice, views opinions, or recommendations contained in this document or for correcting any error or omission which may become apparent after the document has been issued. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded. Bell Potter Limited and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this document or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this document or any other person. Disclosure of interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited, its employees, consultants and its associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Law may receive commissions, underwriting and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this document (which its representatives may directly share) and may from time to time hold interests in the securities referred to in this document.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.
Page 8
