What Does The Next Era of Traffic Management Look Like?

What Does The Next Era of Traffic Management Look Like?

mogolinc.com

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Abstract

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Introduction

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A c t i v e Tr a f f i c M a n a g e m e n t

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Navigation

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Ve h i c l e t o I n f r a s t r u c t u r e L o w L a t e n c y Communications

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Solution Criteria

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M o g o l C o n n e c t e d Tr a f f i c M a n a g e m e n t ( C T M )

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Conclusion

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References

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Copyright (c) 2017 Mogol, Inc. Connected Traffic Management, CTM and the Mogol logo are trademarks of Mogol, Inc. Patents Pending.

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Abstract Traffic is at an all-time high. Road safety is a paramount concern to cities and states. This white paper looks at advanced transportation technologies, their lifetime and shortcomings given the impending Connected and Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) revolution, and establishes criteria for selecting technology that will perform before, during the transition to, and with CAVs. Mogol’s Connected Traffic Management (CTM) platform is then proposed and evaluated against the criteria.


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INTRODUCTION The National Highway Traffic Safety Agency (NHTSA) estimates 11 million vehicles were involved in policereported traffic crashes in 2015.1

In an earlier study, the NHTSA attributed surveyed accident causes to

inadequate surveillance (20%), too fast for conditions or curve (13%), external distractions (4%) and aggressive driving behavior (2%) among other factors.2 These particular factors represent 39% of all accident causes, and all accidents collectively cost the US economy $277 million.3

Other (7.9%) Non-performance error (7.1%) Sleep, actually asleep

Heart attack or other physical impairment

Recognition error (40.6%) Inadequate surveillance Internal distraction

External distraction Inattention

Performance error (10.3%) Overcompensation

Poor directional control

Panic/freezing

Decision error (34.1%) Too fast for conditions Too fast for curve

False assumption of other's action Illegal maneuver

Misjudgment of gap or other's speed Following too closely

Aggressive driving behavior

Managing traffic to reduce the number of accidents has never been more important. Population, vehicle ownership, and traffic consistently increase but the amount of space for highways and roadways remains constant, limiting capacity and opportunities for growth. This white paper presents the benefits and limitations of advanced transportation technologies that may help improve road safety and traffic congestion. First, Active Traffic Management (ATM) is presented along with results from the M42 deployment in the UK and deployments in Washington State and Oregon State in the US. Navigation solutions meant to improve traffic via routing selection or heads up display are presented next, followed by low latency vehicle to infrastructure (V2I). Criteria are then proposed to evaluate advanced transportation technology solutions, which is used to evaluate Mogol’s CTM platform.


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cost of adding an additional lane to the freeway. For the M42,

ACTIVE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

the installation cost $15M per route mile and Seattle I-5 was

Even when roadway expansion is feasible, it is costly at $2-$10 million per lane mile for freeways.4 Alternatives such as Active Traffic Management (ATM) have been in use since the early 2000s and have shown much success in both congestion and accident reduction. ATM uses digital signage to close lanes, allow travelers to use the shoulder to exit, and change speed limits, all with the goal of improving safety and congestion. The M42 in the UK is one of the earlier installations of ATM and various thorough studies of its performance exist. The technology used along the M42 includes dynamic shoulder, dynamic lane closures, and variable speed limit. As of a year after the installation, the Highway Agency reported a 64% reduction in personal injury accidents and a 21% improvement in travel time variability (4L-VMSL vs NO-VSL).5 Notably, the worst-case improvement in travel times went from 38 minutes on Friday evenings at 6 PM to

$6-8/route mile depending on the number of lanes.8 This limits scalability and deployment to only exceptional regions. Given the expense of these systems, they need long lifetimes; however, the coming advent of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) complicates how useful they will be in ten years. Gartner estimates 250 million vehicles on the road will be connected by 2020.9 Nine of ten smart phone owners use their phone for directions.10 Autonomous vehicles will be able to communicate amongst each other and to infrastructure. Digital signage for traffic control will be obsolete before it hits broad deployment, and the technology needed to communicate to drivers on their dashboards is already in place and growing astoundingly fast with every new vehicle model year. Millions are being spent on deploying infrastructure that will be obsolete shortly after it is in operation.

11 minutes, a 70% improvement. In the US both Washington and Oregon have made inroads into using ATM. The I-5 near Seattle utilizes variable speed limits and has recorded a 6.5-8.5% improvement in collisions.6 OR-217 has reduced accidents by 21%, improved transit times by 7%, and improved travel time reliability by 50% while traffic volume increased by 9% by utilizing advised speeds,

queue

warnings,

and

travel

time

notifications.7

In each of these deployments, while there has been great success, the cost per installation is prohibitive, at or above the

Questions to ask: Does the solution have a low non-recoverable cost or can that cost be recouped by repurposing when the technology is obsolete? Is the total cost per mile for the technology cost effective? Does the solution have a long lifespan (greater than 20 years)?


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N AV I G AT I O N

Questions to ask:

Navigation providers are in a unique position to influence driver

Does the solution provide unbiased access to data

behavior. Not only can they affect where traffic is going, they

(as opposed to exclusive or priority data access to a

can influence in-route behavior as seen with Waze’s visual

company or group of companies)?

notifications.

Is the solution effective at cutting congestion and accident rates?

VEHICLE TO INFRASTRUCTURE LOW L AT E N C Y C O M M U N I C AT I O N S Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) and other cellnetwork based low latency communication is up and coming technology promising to greatly improve safety and congestion issues.19

V2V and V2I promise low latency communication

between vehicles and between vehicles and infrastructure enabling crash avoidance, platooning, signal phase and timing as well as cooperative driving technology. One challenge with V2I is that the primary use case is for traffic signal timing. Given the cost of deploying connected infrastructure The dynamic routing capabilities of GPS providers like Waze today can profoundly impact travel time. Commuters, ambulance and emergency response teams all benefit from dynamic routing around accidents and closures – Waze Connected Citizen’s presentation claims Boston was able to reduce congestion 18% in Seaport District.11 All routers today optimize for the benefit individual or network of users on that platform; there is no standardized method for administration or regional authorities to coordinate among GPS providers. This is a growing issue for a large number of cities, such as Los Angeles12 and Sherman Oaks, CA13, City of Fremont, CA14, San Jose, CA15, and Takoma Park, MD16, where once quiet neighborhoods now

(DSRC averaged $17,600 per site in a 2014 study released the U.S. Department of Transportation20), more use cases are needed with additional improvements in safety and congestion. Couple this with the unknown future of low latency V2I (DSRC is relying on a mandate by the US Federal Government), deploying systems is a high risk venture for a city or state to undertake. This has led to limited “test bed” deployments. Even after vehicles begin to appear with low latency communication technology, significant penetration will not occur for a few ownership generations (approximately 13-14 years)21 – meaning 2035 is the earliest DSRC can be expected to have sufficient market penetration assuming a 2021 mandate year.

experience commuter traffic avoiding congested freeways. Companies like Waze and HERE have reached out to cities and states to start combating these problems – Waze with its Connected Citizen program,17 and HERE with its partnership with Colorado and Colorado Department of Transportation’s

Questions to ask: Can the solution transition seamlessly to new communication standards?

RoadX program.18 The goals with Waze and HERE are the same –

Is the solution aligned with city and community

improve neighborhood safety and improve incident management.

requirements?

The challenge is that this still represents a disjointed effort, and cities are still leaving the traffic flow decisions up to parties with commercial incentives that may not align with city priorities.


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THE SOLUTION SOLUTION CRITERIA Considering these existing solutions and the limitations of each, the following criteria is proposed to evaluate advanced transportation management solutions:

1 2 3

Does the solution have a low non-recoverable cost or can that cost

Can the solution transition seamlessly to new communication

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be recouped by repurposing when the technology is obsolete?

standards?

Is the total cost per mile for the technology cost effective?

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Does the solution have a long lifespan (greater than 20 years)?

Does the solution provide unbiased access to data (as opposed

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Is the solution effective at cutting congestion and accident rates?

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Is the solution aligned with city and community requirements?

to exclusive or priority data access to a company or group of companies)?

MOGOL CONNECTED TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT (CTM) Connected Traffic Management (CTM) is Mogol’s solution to these problems. Mogol CTM is a cloud based platform that operates like existing traffic management platforms, but providing a very different form of outreach to drivers. Instead of integrating physical digital message signs and road sensors, it communicates to vehicles to deliver messages for display on dashboards and navigation instructions for incident management. In return, Mogol CTM receives telemetry and sensor data from the vehicle for automatic traffic management and reporting road usage, incidents and road conditions back to city officials. By leveraging the power of the cloud, Mogol is able to constantly update and improve the CTM platform for decades to come.

Existing Traffic Management

Digital message signs Navigation

Active traffic management signage CCTVs Travel estimate signs Speed/Count Sensors Signal lights Travel time sensors Weather

Vehicle dashboard active traffic management Vehicle dashboard messages

Mogol Connected Traffic Management

Managed routing Smartphone Heads up display

V2I Data Stream

Mogol CTM sheds the need for expensive infrastructure and empowers traffic management centers to control the flow of traffic in ways never possible before.


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Mogol CTM is communication layer agnostic, meaning that it

developers, and the city’s own data and twitter feeds that is driven

works today with existing cell networks and cell connected cars

by the CTM response engine, updating data in real time and

and it will work with DSRC and the communication standards of

providing guaranteed quality of service to the data consumers.

tomorrow. Start connected car now and have a seamless transition

This clearinghouse provides navigation partners one data portal

as other communication standards are adopted and evolve.

for access to all the cities and states utilizing Mogol CTM, and

Not only does Mogol CTM communicate directly to vehicles, it also operates a clearinghouse for navigation partners, app

provides cities with a single data publication path so that they don’t have to manage relationships with each navigation provider.

Navigation Providers

Apps

OEMs

Cities

By operating as centralized clearinghouse, Mogol CTM provides a single point of contact for cities and states, and a single, standardized, high quality source of data for automakers, application developers and navigation providers.

By utilizing existing cell networks and displays in vehicles, Mogol

Case study: mandatory connected in-vehicle displays in Oregon.

CTM delivers at a fraction of the cost of a physical installation

In Oregon, there are approximately 1.5 million registered vehicles.

while providing the same functionality that has yielded significant

With Mogol CTM as the traffic management platform, a $50 device

improvements in traffic congestion and safety.

like a cell phone could be mounted in each vehicle for a cost of $75

Case study: non-mandatory device installation. A 2015 report from Gartner estimates that 250 million connected vehicles will be on the road by 2020.22 That’s just with cell and internet connectivity, prior to DSRC and V2V deployment. Couple these vehicles with the 9 of 10 smartphone owners that use their phone for directions23, and most drivers on the road are already able to receive traffic management instructions via navigation updates or

million and active traffic management, managed routing, incident management and amber alerts would be enabled on every road, in every car. Contrast this with the $8 million per route mile for a five-lane section in Washington state on I-524 - coverage of the entire state using connected traffic management costs the same as installing ATM on only 10 route miles of highway. Infrastructure installations are not nearly as cost effective as Mogol CTM.

dashboard display notifications without any purchasing cost on the public office side.


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CONCLUSION Traffic and safety are high priorities for city officials and transportation planners. New approaches to traffic management are needed that provide flexibility and scalability as cities continue to grow. With the advent of CAVs, the lifetime of traditional infrastructure projects needs to be questioned and solutions that also meet CAV requirements. Failure to do so will result in millions of dollars of investment in infrastructure being wasted as deployments become obsolete. Disjointed efforts between car manufactures and navigation providers will result in a fragmented system with commercial and individual interests being paramount over city and public safety interests. Establishing a regional authority for operation of connected traffic management is necessary to provide an authority for in vehicle messaging and to protect the interests of the public. Low-latency V2I, while a promising technology that will save many lives, is not necessary to start managing traffic with connected vehicles, and connected technology should be able to leverage lowlatency V2I as well as any additional future communication mediums. Mogol CTM was built to solve these problems. Join us, and Make Traffic Move Again™.

For more information or a demo, please contact [email protected].


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